Charting Crypto: Navigating Uncertainity - A Report by Coinbase Institutional & Glassnode

The report presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for crypto markets heading into Q4 2025. Despite a sharp leverage correction in October, analysts remain positive due to strong liquidity, potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, and growing regulatory clarity. Institutional participation, particularly from digital asset treasury companies (DATs) that now hold around 3.5% of Bitcoin’s and 3.7% of Ethereum’s supply, continues to underpin demand. However, uncertainties like the U.S. government shutdown, potential macro slowdowns, and questions around the sustainability of DATs temper enthusiasm.

A global investor survey of over 120 participants shows that most remain bullish on Bitcoin, though opinions diverge on the stage of the market cycle—institutions view it as late bull, while non-institutional investors are more cautious. Both groups cite macroeconomic risks as the biggest short-term threat. Stablecoin volumes hit record highs, signaling broader adoption in payments, while tokenized real-world assets and prediction markets like Polymarket are gaining traction as emerging themes.

Bitcoin remains resilient with most long-term holders maintaining positions even at record highs, and its market dominance rebounded in late Q3. Ethereum saw stronger inflows than Bitcoin ETFs, record Layer-2 activity, and lower transaction fees, though some long-term holders took profits. Overall, Coinbase and Glassnode suggest that favorable macro and regulatory trends, combined with onchain growth, could sustain the crypto bull market—provided inflation and liquidity conditions remain supportive.

251821_4Q25_ChartingCrypto_FINAL_Updated.pdf

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