State of Crypto - Market Outlook 2026 - A Report by 21 Shares

This report outlines how crypto has entered a structurally mature phase, moving beyond boom–bust cycles into steady, institution-led growth. Bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving cycle is weakening as ETFs, corporates, and sovereign allocators provide persistent inflows, reducing volatility and positioning Bitcoin as a macro hedge rather than a speculative asset. Crypto ETPs are projected to surpass $400B in assets, while stablecoin supply is expected to reach $1 trillion, cementing their role as core global payment and settlement infrastructure. The report forecasts rapid expansion of crypto’s functional economy. DeFi TVL is projected to exceed $300B, driven by institutional liquidity, yield demand, and tokenized real-world assets, while prediction markets are expected to reach $100B in annual volume, onboarding millions of new users. At the same time, consolidation will reshape the ecosystem: most Ethereum layer-2 networks and weaker digital asset treasury companies are unlikely to survive, leaving a smaller set of dominant, capital-efficient players. Looking ahead, 2026 is framed as the year crypto integrates deeply with traditional finance and AI. Tokenized assets are expected to surpass $500B in value, regulated ICOs are set to re-emerge as a mainstream capital market, and the “agentic economy” will see AI agents automate payments, trading, and yield strategies onchain. Overall, the report presents crypto not as a speculative frontier, but as a durable, programmable financial layer underpinning the next phase of the global economy.

2026 _ State of Crypto_251218_172156.pdf

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